Saturday, May 01, 2004
Prescience As Science
Recently, I was reading some of my past issues of Gleanings when I came upon something that seemed relevant to our current situation in Iraq. So, in honor of “Mission Accomplished”, here’s an excerpt of the Gleanings letter from two years ago. (I don’t usually like to repeat myself, but I’ll make an exception here.)
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From Gleanings No. 52, September 26, 2002:
“…[G]oing back to our own use of “regime change”, it can be said to be a definite improvement. However, if history is to be a guide, we shouldn’t kid ourselves and believe that we’ll be seen as “liberators” by all. Initially, we will be seen as heroes, just as we were when the Taliban was defeated in Afghanistan. But, that’s just the beginning. Quite often, the conquerors will be seen to be overstaying their welcome. There are way too many examples of that - the British in 19th Century Afghanistan being just one!
Also, just as the petty maharajas of India worried when they saw the king of Oudh being deposed by the British, there might be quite a few countries around the world who will wonder if they’re next. This resentment may eventually lead to more conflicts for the U.S. One has to wonder if our leaders really understand everything that there is to know. Are we the new imperialists? Do we really want an American Empire?
Like the British, we may eventually defeat our enemies, but it would be after horrible incidents like the siege at Lucknow or the massacre at Kanpur. Are we as a people ready for that to happen? Is it really our fight? After this “regime change”, who will be the new leaders of Iraq? We are too beholden by personalities. Just as Al Qaeda and terrorism won’t end with the mere death of Osama bin Laden, we shouldn’t kid ourselves into thinking our problems will be over with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. In fact, our problems will be just beginning.”
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How prescient was that? I’m sure that there were quite a few people who saw what I saw. It’s just that none of us were in positions of power to let our voices be heard. Besides, what do we “armchair strategists” know anyway?
[As a clarification, the incidents mentioned above (Oudh, Lucknow and Kanpur) took place in and around the Indian Mutiny of 1857 – one of the more famous incidents of “regime change”. Much of Gleanings No. 52 included details of those events.]
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From Gleanings No. 52, September 26, 2002:
“…[G]oing back to our own use of “regime change”, it can be said to be a definite improvement. However, if history is to be a guide, we shouldn’t kid ourselves and believe that we’ll be seen as “liberators” by all. Initially, we will be seen as heroes, just as we were when the Taliban was defeated in Afghanistan. But, that’s just the beginning. Quite often, the conquerors will be seen to be overstaying their welcome. There are way too many examples of that - the British in 19th Century Afghanistan being just one!
Also, just as the petty maharajas of India worried when they saw the king of Oudh being deposed by the British, there might be quite a few countries around the world who will wonder if they’re next. This resentment may eventually lead to more conflicts for the U.S. One has to wonder if our leaders really understand everything that there is to know. Are we the new imperialists? Do we really want an American Empire?
Like the British, we may eventually defeat our enemies, but it would be after horrible incidents like the siege at Lucknow or the massacre at Kanpur. Are we as a people ready for that to happen? Is it really our fight? After this “regime change”, who will be the new leaders of Iraq? We are too beholden by personalities. Just as Al Qaeda and terrorism won’t end with the mere death of Osama bin Laden, we shouldn’t kid ourselves into thinking our problems will be over with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. In fact, our problems will be just beginning.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How prescient was that? I’m sure that there were quite a few people who saw what I saw. It’s just that none of us were in positions of power to let our voices be heard. Besides, what do we “armchair strategists” know anyway?
[As a clarification, the incidents mentioned above (Oudh, Lucknow and Kanpur) took place in and around the Indian Mutiny of 1857 – one of the more famous incidents of “regime change”. Much of Gleanings No. 52 included details of those events.]
